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Seven years ago, a mere eight words to electrify a Labour conference and to show the party was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not precisely soaring oratory, the phrase were greeted with wild cheering as delegates stood for spontaneous acclamation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his speeches having such an effect. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as issuing a challenge to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats over the pro-European instincts within Labour. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – albeit temporarily – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Evolution in Position & Settled Debates

Since then, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership in 2020 was to declare the Brexit issue was resolved by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised unbreakable pledge promises that forbade rejoining the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in key seats, despite survey data indicates a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. While Europe may not be the boiling pot in UK politics, a lid which was firmly shut since Brexit is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation that leaving the EU has caused to the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool with which to beat the Reform UK leader, who now rarely mentions how leaving the EU was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

And yet, the extent of the economic harm, which by some estimates has resulted in a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called relationship reset negotiated with the EU in 2024 offers economic benefits measured in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence & Ambitious Proposals

The chancellor is one of those attempting to bypass entrenched interior ministry opposition to a broader scheme designed to boost growth program for young people allowing young people can move between Britain and Europe to study or work.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the clear advantages of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, recently supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

Although Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at every cabinet meeting, insists the red lines remain unchanged, there are ways to work around them. One idea would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the following election platform, to be enacted only after Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

However, Starmer has most recently damping it all down again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with the US, which he regards as key accomplishments of his premiership.

Reportedly that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in several key concerns.

1. Firstly, he believes any customs union agreement has been made significantly more difficult as ministers are busily de-aligning from EU regulations across a range of policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the exorbitant price demanded from Britain to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure in talks has led British officials that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Thirdly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Downing Street as a reason for the UK to keep its distance from Europe.

An Alarming Document and Geopolitical Calculations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It includes only one reference to Britain, found on a suggestion that Donald Trump’s administration will intervene in British politics to foster the growth of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this renders the US an unreliable partner, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by risking precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Echo of 2018

This situation returns us to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to preserve the “option” of remain being on the ballot paper. Indeed, in those days, he still supported a “bespoke customs union deal” similar to the one he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within the Prime Minister's office have noticed that the Health Secretary, widely considered would be a candidate for the leadership, is part of a clutch of senior ministers letting it be known they desire greater ambition regarding the EU.

Aides to the Deputy Prime Minister, another likely contender in a future race for the top job, maintain she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Clear Danger & A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. Should the PM reject more meaningful steps towards EU alignment, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of Labour MPs, members and voters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the impact just a few words had for him seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe that the prime minister ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.