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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.

Discussions encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.

"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."

Appeal for Wider Discussion

Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."