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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action

The sequence of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly becomes sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The 28-point plan from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but avoiding a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.